Sunday, November 14, 2010

regression to what?

There's a mathematical term called "regression to the mean". If you look at any investment type, they have always regressed to the mean rate of inflation over time. It's a mathematical certainty. Thus, if gold regresses to the mean over time, it will likely regress to US$338 per ounce, being the average price of gold, in 2010 dollars, since 1968.
Asking people to buy gold as an investment because, in 1980, it peaked at US$2235 in 2010 dollars - and using that as evidence that it will soon go back to that level - would be calling on an unknown statistical phenomenon called "regression to the peak".
It would be the dream of every commodity salesman that "regression to the peak" be believed by investors. Nothing in history has regressed to the peak - it's a nonsense. If you buy gold today, and its price falls over the coming years, you have lost money, and the gold has generated zero income. Gold never generates income. It just sits there and you pay to have it stored and insured - madness.
Who invested in gold 10 years ago and is selling their holding today? Not many. They're too busy telling everyone about the "profit" they're making. Yeah, right. Could somebody remind them there's no profit generated until you sell the damn stuff!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=10687184

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