Monday, December 20, 2010

Why do firms exist? Ronald Coase, the author of “The Nature of the Firm” (1937), turns 100 on December 29th

Schumpeter

FOR philosophers the great existential question is: “Why is there something rather than nothing?” For management theorists the more mundane equivalent is: “Why do firms exist? Why isn’t everything done by the market?”
Today most people live in a market economy, and central planning is remembered as the greatest economic disaster of the 20th century. Yet most people also spend their working lives in centrally planned bureaucracies called firms. They stick with the same employer for years, rather than regularly returning to the jobs market. They labour to fulfil the “strategic plans” of their corporate commissars. John Jacob Astor’s American Fur Company made him the richest man in America in the 1840s. But it never consisted of more than a handful of people. Today Astor’s company would not register as a blip on the corporate horizon. Firms routinely employ thousands of workers and move billions of dollars-worth of goods and services within their borders.
Why have these “islands of conscious power” survived in the surrounding “ocean of unconscious co-operation”, to borrow a phrase from D.H. Robertson, an economist? Classical economics had little to say about this question. Adam Smith opened “The Wealth of Nations” with a wonderful description of the division of labour in a pin factory, but he said nothing about the bosses who hired the pin-makers or the managers who organised them. Smith’s successors said even less, either ignoring the pin factory entirely or treating it as a tedious black box. They preferred to focus on the sea rather than the islands.
Who knows the secret of the black box?
The man who restored the pin factory to its rightful place at the heart of economic theory celebrates his 100th birthday on December 29th. The economics profession was slow to recognise Ronald Coase’s genius. He first expounded his thinking about the firm in a lecture in Dundee in 1932, when he was just 21 years old. Nobody much listened. He published “The Nature of the Firm” five years later. It went largely unread.
But Mr Coase laboured on regardless: a second seminal article on “The Problem of Social Cost” laid the intellectual foundations of the deregulation revolution of the 1980s. Eventually, Mr Coase acquired an army of followers, such as Oliver Williamson, who fleshed out his ideas. In 1991, aged 80, he was awarded a Nobel prize. Far from resting on his laurels, Mr Coase will publish a new book in 2011, with Ning Wang of Arizona State University, on “How China Became Capitalist”.
His central insight was that firms exist because going to the market all the time can impose heavy transaction costs. You need to hire workers, negotiate prices and enforce contracts, to name but three time-consuming activities. A firm is essentially a device for creating long-term contracts when short-term contracts are too bothersome. But if markets are so inefficient, why don’t firms go on getting bigger for ever? Mr Coase also pointed out that these little planned societies impose transaction costs of their own, which tend to rise as they grow bigger. The proper balance between hierarchies and markets is constantly recalibrated by the forces of competition: entrepreneurs may choose to lower transaction costs by forming firms but giant firms eventually become sluggish and uncompetitive.
How much light does “The Nature of the Firm” throw on today’s corporate landscape? The young Mr Coase first grew interested in the workings of firms when he travelled around America’s industrial heartland on a scholarship in 1931-32. He abandoned his textbooks and asked businessmen why they did what they did. He has long chided his fellow economists for scrawling hieroglyphics on blackboards rather than looking at what it actually takes to run a business. So it seems reasonable to test his ideas by the same empirical standards.
Mr Coase’s theory continues to explain some of the most puzzling problems in modern business. Take the rise of vast and highly diversified business groups in the emerging world, such as India’s Tata group and Turkey’s Koc Holding. Many Western observers dismiss these as relics of a primitive form of capitalism. But they make perfect sense when you consider the transaction costs of going to the market. Where trust in established institutions is scarce, it makes sense for companies to stretch their brands over many industries. And where capital and labour markets are inefficient, it makes equal sense for companies to allocate their own capital and train their own loyalists.
But Mr Coase’s narrow focus on transaction costs nevertheless provides only a partial explanation of the power of firms. The rise of the neo-Coasian school of economists has led to a fierce backlash among management theorists who champion the “resource-based theory” of the firm. They argue that activities are conducted within firms not only because markets fail, but also because firms succeed: they can marshal a wide range of resources—particularly nebulous ones such as “corporate culture” and “collective knowledge”—that markets cannot access. Companies can organise production and create knowledge in unique ways. They can also make long-term bets on innovations that will redefine markets rather than merely satisfy demand. Mr Coase’s theory of “market failure” needs to be complemented by a theory of “organisational advantages”.
All this undoubtedly complicates “The Nature of the Firm”. But it also vindicates the twin decisions that Mr Coase made all those years ago as a young student at the London School of Economics: to look inside the black box rather than simply ignoring it, and to examine businesses, not just fiddle with theories. Is it too much to hope that other practitioners of the dismal science will follow his example and study the real world?




Reality bites: Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson win this year’s Nobel prize for economics

Reality bites

Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson win this year’s Nobel prize for economics

Economics focus

Illustration by Jac Depczyk
BUILDING economic models usually involves stripping the world down to its most essential features. But simple theories often struggle to explain the way things really work. Elinor Ostrom of Indiana University and Oliver Williamson of the University of California at Berkeley, the winners of this year’s Nobel prize for economics, have both been honoured for recognising this complexity. Their research provides insights into economic institutions that play crucial roles in the real world, but to which economists have not paid enough attention.
In the case of Mr Williamson, that institution is the company. With hierarchical decision-making processes based on rules and authority, firms ought to be less efficient than decentralised market exchange based on relative prices, which is how standard economic theory assumes that transactions occur. So why do companies exist at all? This question was first addressed in 1937 by Ronald Coase, the winner of the 1991 Nobel prize for economics and the intellectual forefather of both of this year’s winners. Mr Coase argued that all economic transactions are costly—even in competitive markets, there are costs associated with figuring out the right price. The most efficient institutional arrangement for carrying out a particular economic activity would be the one that minimised transaction costs. This would often be the market. But using authority and rules within a firm would sometimes prove to be more efficient.
Mr Coase’s theory explained why companies existed but it was not specific enough to predict the conditions under which firms, or markets, would be the superior form of organisation. Clarifying this was Mr Williamson’s signal contribution. In a series of papers and books written between 1971 and 1985, he argued that the costs of completing transactions on spot markets increase with their complexity, and if they involve assets that are worth more within a relationship between two parties than outside it (a rear-view mirror made to the specifications of a particular car manufacturer, for example).
Both these features make writing and enforcing contracts which take every possible eventuality into consideration difficult, or even impossible. At some point, therefore, it makes sense to conduct the associated transaction within a single legal entity rather than on a market. The car company might prefer to produce its rear-view mirrors in-house, for example, perhaps by buying the mirror company. This would reduce the time and resources spent haggling over profits, because decisions would simply be taken by fiat.
Mr Williamson’s theory helpfully specified measurable attributes of transactions that would make them more or less amenable to being conducted on markets. That meant his thinking could be tested against decisions by companies to integrate parts of their supply chain. It has held up remarkably well. Several studies find, for instance, that when an electricity generator can choose between the output of many nearby coalmines that produce coal of a particular quality, it tends to buy its coal on an open market. But if there is only one nearby mine that can be relied upon as a supplier, the electricity generator tends to own it. A transaction that could be done on the market moves into the firm.
According to Mr Williamson, one lesson from organisational theory is the importance of identifying common patterns of behaviour in seemingly disparate situations. That sums up the way Elinor Ostrom has spent her working life. The first woman to win a Nobel prize for economics, she studies the governance of “common resource pools”—such as pastures, fisheries or forests—to which more than one person has access. Unlike pure public goods such as the atmosphere, where one person’s use does not reduce the amount available to others, people deplete these resources when they use them. Standard economic models predict that in the absence of clearly defined property rights, such common resources will be overexploited, with individuals acting without regard for the effects of their actions on the overall pool. Overfishing or overgrazing (the “tragedy of the commons”) will result. Over time, stocks of the common resource will dwindle.
But in 40 years of studying how common resources—from lobster fisheries in Maine to irrigation systems in Nepal—are actually managed by communities, Ms Ostrom found that people often devise rather sophisticated systems of governance to ensure that these resources are not overused. These systems involve explicit rules about what people can use, what their responsibilities are, and how they will be punished if they break the rules. In particular, she found that self-governance often worked much better than an ill-informed government taking over and imposing sometimes clumsy, and often ineffective, rules. In this, she too shadows Mr Coase, who argued that those who advocated government ownership of common resources ignored the transaction costs associated with collecting taxes.


Tit for tat

One problem with the idea of the tragedy of the commons, Ms Ostrom found, was that it did not account for the fact that people sharing a pool of resources tend to interact repeatedly, making all sorts of clever punishments for wrongdoing feasible. Being able to threaten credible retaliation makes co-operation possible. This is the province of game theory, to which Ms Ostrom has contributed, both through formal modelling of what she found in the field and subsequent laboratory tests of her models.
Both Mr Williamson and Ms Ostrom have built on Mr Coase’s idea that all transactions have costs but that these costs will be minimised by different institutional arrangements in different situations. Their work uses methods and insights from fields that many economists are not sufficiently familiar with: detailed case studies, in the case of Ms Ostrom, a political scientist by training, and insights from the law in Mr Williamson’s case. Their win reminds economists that borders between disciplines, like those between the firm and the market, can be profitably crossed.
http://www.economist.com/node/14638409

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

word usage: blinkered horse

"Another blinkered-horse comment..."

===================



•A blinkered pony/horse would be a pony/horse that is wearing blinkers. Blinkers are peices of material, usually leather or plastic, that attaches to the bridle, near they eyes. Blinkers limit the horses range of vision to only what is in front of them. It is most commonly seen on carriage horses and race horses. They help keep the horse focused, instead of worrying about what is all around them.



Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_a_blinkered_pony#ixzz18EYddcsW

word usage: canary in the mine

"Bond markets essentially judged Ireland and Greece's public finances as unsustainable. The first canary in the mine was a rise in credit default swap spreads versus benchmarks, and then a rise in the bond yields themselves."

by B.H

============




Miner's canary

Canaries were once regularly used in coal mining as an early warning system.[1] Toxic gases such as carbon monoxide and methane in the mine would kill the bird before affecting the miners. Because canaries tend to sing much of the time, they provided both a visual and audible cue in this respect. The use of so called miner's canaries in British mines was phased out in 1987.[2]

Hence, the phrase "canary in a coal mine" is frequently used to refer to a person or thing which serves as an early warning of a coming crisis. By analogy, the term climate canary is used to refer to a species that is affected by an environmental danger prior to other species, thus serving as an early warning system for the other species with regard to the danger.[3]

-- Wikipedia

"No country becomes spontaneously evil..."

"No country becomes spontaneously evil. Nations behave largely as a result
of how they have been treated historically. Korea has been invaded,
colonised and exploited more than most countries in recent centuries."

To what extent does that apply to the explanation/analysis of human being (human behavior)?

====================================================================

No country becomes spontaneously evil. Nations behave largely as a result
of how they have been treated historically. Korea has been invaded,
colonised and exploited more than most countries in recent centuries. The
First Sino‐Japanese War of 1894–95 and the Russo‐Japanese War of 1904–05
were both fought in part for possession or influence over the Korean
peninsula. Japan, victorious in both wars, absorbed Korea into its empire
from the late nineteenth century until the end of World War II; it released a
culturally marginalised, impoverished and embittered Korea to stumble
into the middle of the twentieth century with no means of defending its
fragile independence.

http://www.business.auckland.ac.nz/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=PpSOSG3-6hc%3d&tabid=2636

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

对刘瑜的访谈 zt

我对中国持有审慎的乐观态度

http://www.bullogger.com/blogs/drunkpiano/archives/367265.aspx


1.不是启蒙,是自我教育,分享精神

记者:回国一个月,目前工作生活的状况怎样?
刘瑜:还在转型期,有点忙乱,没有正式进入工作状态。主要是会亲友、办入职手续、打理家务事。第一个学期只有很少的研究生课程,所以主要是自己看书写东西。我手里现在有三四个写了一半左右的论文,想尽快写完它们。
记者:还在写专栏吗?
刘瑜:专栏现在写得很少,基本也就是一个月一篇的样子。目前只给一两个刊物写点“软政治”类专栏。接下来的两三年,专栏随笔肯定是我写作计划中最边缘化的东西。
记者:给媒体写稿的时候,如果目标读者具体化为一个人,能够描述一下这个人么。
刘瑜:我一般会把我比较喜爱和尊重的人当作假想读者,就像我备课时会把班上最优秀的学生作为假想听众一样。
记者:写这些文章的时候,你有自觉的启蒙意识么?
刘瑜:还真没有,很多时候是自我教育,还有些时候是分享精神。
记者:你对你的专栏以及后来结集成的书如此受欢迎,感到吃惊么?
刘瑜:不是特别吃惊。我觉得自己在适当的时候和地点写了一本适当的书。中国在一个转型期,政治上很多人都很迷惘,我针对一些令人迷惘的问题,分享了一些我的看法。
记者:你会不会觉得启蒙这件事,有一点伦理上的尴尬?
刘瑜:是,一个人得多自信才会那么斩钉截铁地居高临下,我没有那种自信。我们都是“红旗下的蛋”,既然如此,自我教育和教育他人只能同步进行。

2.我对中国持有审慎的乐观态度

记者:谈谈你对中国转型的基本看法。
刘瑜:我对中国持有审慎的乐观态度,觉得从长线来看,它在向一个更开放、文明的方向前进。
记者:短线来看呢?比如十年。
刘瑜:在这个问题上,我觉得很难说有一个笼而统之的中国,从社会活力上来说,我觉得它在不断进步,从政治上来看,进步可能慢一些。但政府没有主动进步,也可能在社会的推动下有被动进步。这是很多转型国家的经历。
记者:社会进步和政治慢慢进步,这个差距,会不会造成风险?
刘 瑜:会。你看中东欧国家80年代转型经历,就会发现越是拒绝改革的国家,比如罗马尼亚,最后转型的方式越惨烈,越是“把握时代潮流”的国家,比如捷克匈牙 利,转型就相对平和。我觉得中国人应该从自己的历史伤疤和它国身上学到足够的经验,防止这个矛盾激化到暴力冲突的地步。
记者:除了暴力冲突,历史和他国经验中,暂时还没有其他的扭曲或者病态么?避免暴力冲突是否就能避免走进新专制的怪圈?
刘 瑜:当然有,太多扭曲和病态了,便是中东欧的和平变革,也经历了十年的经济动荡和萧条。陷入新专制怪圈也不少见,比如俄罗斯。中国相比它们,有自己的优 势,也有劣势。优势是中国市场经济改革已经十有八九,社会多元化也相应出现,不用像中东欧国家那样政治、经济、社会需要同步变革,那样造成的冲击太大。劣 势是中国的专制传统深厚,而且制度的缝隙比很多其他转型国家要小。
记者:这个专制传统,具体体现什么方面?
刘瑜:比如体现在对权威、当权者的莫名敬畏和习惯性服从里。在习惯性服从权威的同时,转过身来又对无权无势的人颐指气使。
记者:这个所谓文化,是有传统,应该也是当下现实激励的结果——解毒的力量在哪里?你刚说看到社会在进步,是不是也包括这方面。
刘 瑜:最大的解毒力量可能是市场经济,当社会和经济资源越来越少地为权力垄断,人们对国家的依赖性就会减弱,一旦物质依赖性减弱,精神自主性也会增强。这和 女性经济独立后不那么听男人的话了是一个道理。然后就是公共领域的拓展,市场化的媒体和出版业、民间组织、互联网的发展,使得以往一个个孤立的人有了凝聚 的可能性,而且是一种横向、而非纵向的人际网络,这对消解那种“威权人格”应该也有好处。用学者Putnam的话来说,这就是“社会资本”,即使这些民间 网络不关心国事天下事,仅仅是组织旅游俱乐部、羽毛球俱乐部,用Putnam的观点来看,这都是在积蓄“社会资本”,都是在为良性政治添加润滑剂。
记者:你刚才说到,中国的市场经济已经改的十有八九了,这个判断是怎样生成的?这几年国进民退,即使只从增强国民依附性的角度讲,这是否也是一个退步?
刘 瑜:十有八九这个词可能不确切,说十有五六也行,我的意思是在经济改革中,市场化转向的最关键一步已经迈出,“市场”这个词已经非常深入人心了。至于“国 进民退”,这个媒体上现在谈的很多,但说实话,我觉得这是一个需要足够宏观数据支撑的判断,我不知道是不是正确,因为我读到过正反双方的数据。也许这个话 题这么热,表达的仅仅是大家对经济改革速度放缓甚至陷入停滞的不安。当然,即使仅仅是一种“感觉”,这种感觉本身也是社会力量觉醒的一种表现。
记者:即使没有国进民退,普遍化的所谓裙带资本主义,也是一个不争事实吧。如果市场化就只是裙带资本主义化,它会不会事实上让人们更加“对权威对当权者莫名敬畏和服从”呢?
刘 瑜:我觉得中国的市场化不是那么非黑即白,很多企业未必只靠裙带,也许一边靠裙带、一边也要靠提高产品和服务质量。比如我发现现在去银行办事,服务态度一 般都很好。总的来说,我相信市场经济所蕴含的契约精神、竞争意识长远来看是对专制文化最好的解构力量,当然这肯定是一个漫长的过程。
记者:关于公共领域的拓展,我个人有一种悲观,就是在目前制度环境下,拓展到了一个程度之后,就拓不开了。所谓精英与最大多数的大众之间的沟通通道,非常狭窄,并且只能以很间接很暧昧的方式进行。
刘 瑜:我也觉得在现有制度条件下,公共领域的拓展比较缓慢,但方向应该不会变的。别忘了历史的改变往往不是匀速前进的,它可能是20年缓慢的变化,然后3、 5年迅疾的变化。对比一下勃列日涅夫时代和戈尔巴乔夫时代就能看到这一点。而且,时代的缓慢变化未必是没意义的,它也是一种积累,甚至在一定程度上,可以 说激变需要一个渐变的铺垫和准备,这样当激变来临时,社会是在有相对共识的情况下迎接这个变化的。

3.那是很大的如果,总体我还是乐观。

记者:让你感到社会在不断进步的因素有哪些,个人经验的,调查研究的,分别讲讲。
刘瑜:个人观察到的东西很多。比如,20年前市场经济这个词还是个禁忌,97年15大的时候,还是在说要保障非公有制企业的合法地位,但现在,媒体讨论的是“凭什么国企拿地”,“凭什么垄断企业工资高”,问题意识的边界一直在移动,这本身就是一种进步。
乐 观的另一个理由就是对他国经验研究的阅读。比如学者Iglehart的书,他用民意调查的方式,20多年跟踪研究几十个国家政治观念的变化,对“经济发展 -观念变化-制度变化”这个三个变量的关系得出了令人乐观的结论。在读到更严谨和有说服力的研究之前,我暂时相信他的结论。关于中国,也有一些类似的研 究,结论也类似。
记者:可是我对“历史必然性”这种东西感到怀疑。
我也不相信历史必然性,我只是说如果经济继续保持发展和开放的话,文化 和制度会相应变化。但那是很大的“如果”,不排除资源能源环境甚至政治等因素可能颠覆这个“如果”。总体我还是乐观,这种乐观的根基可能是我相信自由的制 度安排不单在道义上是好的,而且在绩效上是有最有力的,所以即使你对人的善意失去信心,也不应该对人的逐利倾向失去信心。只是必然这个词太绝对了,我这种 天生的怀疑主义者不会使用。
记者:从宏观上相信经济发展导致观念变化,但是微观去讲,这个传导链条里有哪些关键环节?再具体到个人,尤其是职业相关的群体,技术性地讲,如何做才能更有效地推动观念的变革?
微 观地去分析一个一个的职业群体,在这样的访谈里是不可能的,也是不必要的。大体来说,经济的发展和开放推动观念的变化,无非是几个机制:第一,当经济发展 到一定程度,会有更多资源流向“基本生存”以外的领域,其中一些会流向公共领域。比如我认识一些商人,他们开始有“余钱”资助一些论坛、出版之类的事情, 普通人也会有更多的钱来买书、上网、捐赠慈善事业等等。比如;第二,经济发展之后,交通通讯方式更发达,有利于人们建立更密集的横向交流网络,而人们在交 流中可以“撞出更多思想的火花”,网络论坛、博客、微博不都如此?第三,市场经济的契约精神会渗透到文化里,增进人们的权利意识。第四,这是 Inglehart的观点,就是随着后工业时代的来临,越来越多的职业和工种要求人们作出个体化的判断,而不能象机械流水线上的“螺丝钉”那样工作,这也 鼓励人们的独立自主思考能力。至于这些机制如何在千千万万人身上起作用,似乎不可能一一分析。
记者:在你的判断中,中国人目前在观念变化这一步,走了多远?
刘瑜:这一点Inglehart、杜克大学的史天健老师、台湾的朱云汉老师等 人其实都做过定量研究,他们做了很规范的民意调查和分析,也跟踪了有些年头。基本上结论大同小异,就是随着经济和教育的发展,人们对民主的支持和理解、政 治宽容度等都在向普世价值靠近,虽然还有差距。至于具体“走了多远”,你要是感兴趣,可以去搜他们的论文读。不过由于调查研究的滞后性,他们的很多文章数 据都来源于05年以前的调查,现在的民意变化应该更进一步了。
记者:在国内做研究的优势和劣势分别是什么?
如果是研究中国的话,优势很明显,就是你离“现场”很近,能即时听到各种声音。我跟朋友说,回国以后,我每个饭局都是一次“田野调查”。而且现在由 于网络发达,即使在中国,你要接触到国际上最前沿的研究也很容易。劣势也很明显,由于种种原因,我觉得国内学术研究和对话的水平还比较初级,常常还是一种 不讲论据的“侃大山”风格,另一个极端就是用故弄玄虚的“学术黑话”来包装空洞,如果我不知不觉把要求自己的标准换成这些坐标体系,可能就“迷失自我” 了,所以我现在面临的挑战之一就是如何保持适度的孤独。

4.自我教育就是试图更了解和理解这个世界

记者:大家只知道你是政治学学者,你具体研究的领域是什么?
刘瑜:我之前一直是研究中国革命中动员机制问题,最近对比较政治转型问题感兴趣,做了一些阅读,准备写点系统的东西。
记者:你在博客上透露过,要写一本《中国革命十论》,能不能提前介绍一下核心观点。
刘 瑜:核心问题是“为什么中国革命中出现那样狂热而真诚的政治参与”,核心观点用极简的话来说,就是利益激励导致的政治参与可能因为人类对“认知一致性”的 心理需求而转化为出于信念的参与。就是说,我既想避免那种把民众当作”投机分子“的看法,也想避免把他们当作”纯洁信徒“的看法。当然这只是极简的说法。
记者:如果人类对“认知一致性”的心理需求是客观存在的,那要怎样才能避免这一心理被政治野心家利用呢?
刘瑜:就是我前面说的,解除民众对国家的经济依赖以及职务、声誉依赖,其实也就是哈耶克说的,没有经济自由,不可能有真正的政治自由。
记者:你是从哪一个角度关注政治转型的?
刘瑜:两个角度:一个是政治转型的动力何在;一个是为什么那么多国家政治转型受挫,比如俄罗斯的新专制怪圈,或者民主化过程中族群矛盾的激化。我对后一个问题更感兴趣一些。
记者:这些题材,都比较适合写给普通读者看。我作为读者,就很有兴趣。
刘瑜:也很适合自我教育。
记者:根据他国经验、历史经验,以及其他学者的实证研究得出的宏观结论,与你的个人经验冲突的时候,你会试图用前者诱导性地说服后者么?
刘瑜:会,但有时也会试图用自己的经验去反思一些理论。人或多或少都有意识形态,但一个骄傲的人会觉得智识上的诚实比什么都重要,主要是舍不得放弃翻阅一波三折的世界的乐趣。
记者:在什么意义上使用自我教育这个词?以前你用过外在世界和内在世界来区分自己的两种兴趣,读者也通过《民主的细节》和《送你一颗子弹》看到了两个至少貌似冲突的你。你觉得自己是矛盾统一的么?
刘瑜:自我教育就是试图理解你所置身的这个世界,如果能通过理解这个世界树立更正确的价值观,当然就更好了。
我从没觉得自己矛盾。每个人都或多或少同时有理性和感性的一面,我只是这两方面比较势均力敌而且两方面都比较自我放纵而已。

5.间歇性热爱生活与间歇性厌世此起彼伏

记者:还有文学梦么?
刘瑜:当然有,不同的文字形式可以表达人不同的侧面,一个丰富的人不愿意放弃自己的某些侧面。我没有文体歧视,比如有些人觉得论文比随笔高级,或者小说比专栏高级,我不觉得。我愿意从各个角度挑战自己。
记者:自我实现的具体目标,有么?比如在学术研究上。
刘瑜:也说不上什么特别具体的目标,但至少要不辜负自己的能力和际遇。有机会去那么多好学校学习,然后还算善于表达,如果不写出点东西,会过意不去。
记者:在公共表达方面呢?现在有没有成为公众人物的压力?
刘瑜:到目前为止基本没有,主要是没觉得自己成了公众人物,也无意于努力成为公众人物。如果你真正热爱知识的话,就会觉得阅读和思考带来的乐趣远胜于被关注的乐趣。
你会觉得自己太走狗屎运了,竟然能靠读书和思考生活。
记者:文学方面呢?你以前还说过,想拍电影、导演话剧,死前一定要做的事,列了单子没?
刘瑜:呵呵,估计3年之内我是没有时间去搞文学了。拍电影、导演话剧是技术活,我觉得自己是过了那个村了。但写点小说随笔什么的,技术门槛比较低,有时间肯定还会去做。死前要做的事清单太长,已经排到第八辈子了。
记者:真是热爱生活啊。
刘瑜:间歇性热爱生活与间歇性厌世此起彼伏,呵呵。
记者:间歇性厌世,你怎么治?
刘瑜:扛呗。
记者:除了写写《送你一颗子弹》里面那样的文章。文学表达,对你的幽暗情绪,是一种拯救还是一种强化?
刘瑜:都是。
记者:你对自己的间歇性厌世,有好奇心么?你理解了自己么?
刘瑜:起先有,特别是年少的时候,觉得谁虚无谁酷,谁整天乐呵呵的太三俗了。后来发现虚无这事其实也没什么可拽的,它不就是个虚无么。我是个喜新厌旧的人,包括对自己的情绪。可惜在我已经厌倦了那个幽暗的自己之后,它还是没有离去,所以有时候就是漫长无聊的僵持。
记者:也没揪住个童年阴影啥的当替死鬼?
刘瑜:替死鬼早就找到了,基本上我觉得人的性情是基因起主导作用。关键是找到了又怎么样,你也不能跟基因打一架。
记者:就是当个病接受了?
刘瑜:也不是,也自救。
记者:幽暗的这部分,性格中痛苦的部分,除了浪费你的时间,催生了你的文学化写作,对你的人生安排,现实抉择,有没有过重大影响?
刘瑜:回国的原因之一,基本就是试图在我和那个健康的我之间,搬走那个抑郁的我。
记者:回国为何能够帮助你搬走那个抑郁的你?
刘瑜:由于种种原因,我在国外的时候,基本上就是生活在一个人际关系的真空里,因为这个真空,所以就陷入了自我观察和自我关注的漩涡,在这个漩涡中的挣扎消耗了大量的时间精力,太浪费了,所以我回来解放自己的生产力了。
记者:通过研究中国革命动员机制了解的人性,和通过体验自己的抑郁了解的人性,之间有关联么,有彼此启发么?
刘瑜:前者是置身于“集体”当中的人性,后者是作为“个体”的人性,这两个东西是很不一样的。个体人性是一个和尚有水喝,集体人性是三个和尚没水喝。整个“公共选择理论”,就是试图说明置身于集体的人如何不同于作为个体的人。
总的来说我相信好的政治能让社会更美好,但个体的幸福感肯定不能单靠政治来解决,因为个体的幸福感一般与一定的能力或者禀赋联系在一起。政治可能能让你更安全、自由,但不能让你更漂亮、智商更高、唱歌更好听。
记者:你相信有全知全能的意志么?通常人们爱说的上帝或者神?
刘瑜:不相信。我有时候也用上帝或者神这样的字眼,但仅仅是在智力上想偷懒或者想对自己温柔一点的时候。

6.我对经验世界的重视和对逻辑论据的重视,都起源于网络辩论

记者:从什么时候开始对学术产生真正的兴趣的?
刘瑜:如果把学术不仅仅理解为对书的兴趣、而是对理解书后面的经验世界的兴趣,其实也就是近6、7年左右的事情。
记者:难道你原来对书更感兴趣?
刘瑜:未必多么感兴趣,但我以前以为搞学术就是读书、引经据典、跟别人竞赛谁掌握的生僻人名多。
记者:还跟人竞争过生僻人名储备?
刘瑜:呵呵,竞争不过别人,记忆力不好。
记者:那么必要的学术训练包括哪些?
刘瑜:基本的包括文献查阅、逻辑思维和讲论据的态度,但具体到怎么讲论据,有定量研究、田野调查等等。
记者:考大学为什么会报考国际政治专业?
刘瑜:我爸妈让我报的。
记者:中学的时候,对什么东西真的感兴趣?
刘瑜:虽然在我幽暗的中学时代有过热爱崔健这样的传奇经历,但总的来说我的中学时代特别平淡无奇,基本是个学习机器。我知道很多自由派倾向的人中学时代就有过种种叛逆行为和思想,我中学却几乎没有任何愤青迹象。
记者:读大学的时候,感觉到学习的乐趣了么?
刘瑜:也没有,但大学时代至少知道了学习之外另有天地。
记者:比如?
刘瑜:比如为了当上一个合格的文艺女青年而读萨特尼采海子什么的。
记者:你的意思是,不是真诚地读?没有受到影响?
刘瑜:没有持久的影响,可能当时也会搅动小心脏一下。如果说有影响,甚至有点坏影响。
我 觉得90年代自己成长一个特别恶劣的文化环境里,前半段还是萨特海子什么的,后半段就是福柯罗兰巴特什么的,我对这些人物本身没什么意见,但是在当时中国 的环境里,他们往往是以这“热”那“热”的形式出现的,对于年轻尚未有强大自我和判断力的孩子,很容易就把他们当时髦来赶而不是思想来读,后果就是造就了 一批迷恋姿态远甚于思考本身的青年学子。
记者:那么后来,你自我肯定的勇气是从哪里来的呢?
刘瑜:可能我前面对中学大学时代自己的描述不大公平。我中学也组织诗社、大学也写小说什么的。一直隐隐有种“要和别人不一样”的冲动,但到90末期,还是只有“文艺”的那一面被开发出来,一直没有碰到合适的思想资源浇灌另一个充满好奇心和求知欲的自己。
记者:后来碰到什么合适的了?
刘 瑜:我觉得网络对我是个巨大的冲击。我99年左右开始上网,稀里糊涂就上了时政论坛,我被有些人蛮不讲理、是非颠倒的辩论方式给吓坏了,也给气坏了,正义 感一下子就给激发起来了。然后这种正义感就开始感召我读一些历史性的东西,而不是萨特福柯这样时髦但实际上跟我的生活和感受没什么关系的东西,结果一根线 越扯越长,扯出很多让我非常受震动的东西。我博士论文写中国革命就发源于网络辩论。
而且,另一方面,网络辩论的即时性和直接性也训练我以严密的语 言和逻辑思考——因为你的论敌不断迅速指出你的这个或者那个漏洞,你不得不不断调整自己的观点和逻辑。所以我现在思维里很重要的的两种东西,对论据的重视 和对逻辑的重视,都起源于当时的网络辩论。基本上,发现互联网对我来说就是《黑客帝国》里“吞下那颗红药丸”的片刻。
记者:这个好东西,在留学期间被加强了吧。
刘瑜:对。我记得刚到美国那个圣诞节,当时的男朋友从西岸来纽约看我,发现我当时没日没夜“战斗”在网络上,连他都不怎么搭理,伤心坏了。基本上我留学第一年,除了应付基本的学业,就是战斗在网络上。不但战斗,还转战不同的论坛,简直是游击队员。
记者:相比之下,国外大学的教育,反而没有那么大的影响?
刘 瑜:国外对我的影响,主要还真不是来自校园教育,虽然我在哥大期间学习成绩很好。主要是当时的课程内容(其实还是一些预设你已经熟知历史和经验世界的理 论)和我当时的问题意识(主要是对中国当代史的兴趣)不衔接。不过国外生活最后对我还是影响巨大,主要是两个途径,一个是对他们的社会和政治生活的观察, 这个《民主的细节》一书已道出;另一个就是后来我按照自己兴趣进行的阅读,尤其是在剑桥这三年。因为自己做了老师,终于不用活在老师的指挥棒下,可以按照 自己的兴趣阅读,就跟发现了一个金矿一样。

7.我还是希望别人能欣赏我身上的复杂性

记者:谈谈你的亲人朋友对你的印象。
刘瑜:不知道啊。在听到的各种形容词中,我最喜爱的一个是“灿烂”。
记者:你希望你爱的人基于何种原因爱上你?灿烂、还是幽暗?不要说全部。
刘瑜:虽然你规定不能说全部,但我还是希望别人能欣赏我身上的复杂性,主要是我也不可能爱上一个对复杂性没有理解力的人。
记者:那你能从复杂性的角度,谅解自己的抑郁么?
刘瑜:心情好的时候能,不好的时候,觉得自己被抑郁劫持的时候不能。
记者:你觉得别人最有可能出于什么原因讨厌你?
刘瑜:咄咄逼人、争强好胜?别人的看法我不清楚,我自己意识到的缺点包括:在一些原则问题上还是有些软弱;有时候还是太武断;虽然面对批评最后往往能反思,但第一反应里往往情绪化的东西太多。
记者:一个读了你所有的博客和已出版文字的人,是否已经足够了解你?
刘瑜:不能。一方面,有些东西我不会写到公开的文字里去;另一方面,我两本书其实主体都写于我去英国前,其实这几年我还是有些变化的。
记者:这几年的变化是什么?
刘瑜:文艺女青年的部分在缩小,对姿态——包括叛逆的姿态——失去兴趣,对理解外在世界有了真诚而热烈的兴趣。
记者:在茂盛的智力生活之外,最主要的生活内容是什么?
刘瑜: 基本上我是个没有生活的人。爱听音乐,经常在网上搜各种音乐听。网上看各种八卦。以前还爱逛街买东西,后来发现家里不用的东西比有用的东西还多,不穿的衣服比还穿的衣服还多,就不爱逛街了,改喜欢扔东西了。
记者:在发现了自己的好奇心和求知欲之后,是否逐渐产生一种人生借此安顿的感觉?你的生活是否仍然存在彻底被颠覆的风险?向哪些可能性开放?
刘瑜:希望至少能安顿个三五年吧,之后怎样只能走到哪算哪。虚无主义的危险肯定一直在那,但不想渲染它,希望通过忽略它而被它忽略。
记者:你觉得自己压抑么?
刘瑜:不觉得压抑,但我能想象更好的生活。
记者:觉得幸福么?
刘瑜:读到一本好书,听到一段好音乐,或者买到一只没有倒瓤的西瓜,这样的片刻,还是挺幸福的。
记者:假想,你这样一套基因,投胎到美国,比如说一个中产阶级家庭,最主流的那种,你会长成一个什么样的人呢?
刘瑜:我估计还是现在这个样子,只是少拐30年的弯而已。

肩负自由的疲惫 zt

肩负自由的疲惫

http://magazine.caijing.com.cn/2010-11-21/110572442.html

刘瑜/文

两年前刚当选时,奥巴马是美国人民——不,世界人民——的奥特曼。大家都期待着他能从“怪兽”布什手中拯救美国。然而,近70%的支持率,两年之后,滑到了43%。当年他对着如痴如醉的民众高呼:Yes, we can。今天,美国失业率居高不下、反恐战争久拖不决,民众无精打采地看着他说:No, you can't。
遭遇支持率危机的,不仅仅是奥巴马。日本菅直人内阁的支持率据说在11月初再创新低,只剩27%,而法国萨科奇的支持率最近就一直停留在25%。其他民主国家或地区也好不到哪里去。在这场角逐“最不受欢迎领袖”的激烈“竞赛”中,没有最衰,只有更衰。
相比之下,另一些国家的领导人则惬意得多。比如,全国只剩一家反对派报纸的俄罗斯,普京的支持率就高达77%;公共权力已被逐渐个人化的委内瑞拉,查韦斯的支持率稳定在60%左右。
这是不是说明,西式民主制度已经日落西山,而俄罗斯模式或者查韦斯模式在蒸蒸日上呢?如果西方政府动辄陷入合法性危机,我们有什么必要紧赶慢赶去跳这火坑呢?据一项调查,在美国,表示“非常信任政府”的民众已从1966年的42%降至2000年的14%,“非常信任国会”的民众从42%降至13%。同一趋势也出现在几乎所有其他发达国家,而且一年四季都在“民怨沸腾”。
没有掉入这个政治陷阱,我们简直应该掸冠相庆。
但,有没有一种可能,在一个地方,人们觉得刘嘉玲不够美,是因为他们把李嘉欣作为衡量标准,而在另一个地方,人们觉得凤姐很美,是因为他们把小月月作为衡量标准?就是说,是衡量标准的不同,导致人们形成错觉:“凤姐要美过刘嘉玲。”至于为什么有些地方用李嘉欣作为衡量标准,有些地方用小月月做标准,有一种东西叫做“意识形态”,某些意识形态告诉民众“政府仅仅是民众的雇员”,而另一些意识形态则教导我们,“你都有裤子穿了,还不赶紧感谢政府。”
政治学里有一个词叫“批判性公民”。根据这个理论,随着一个国家经济社会发展,民众权利和尊严意识提高,他们会变得越来越饶舌。这些饶舌民众的基本特点是:大惊小怪、小题大做、不依不饶、一哭二闹三上吊。什么?法定退休年龄从60岁升到62岁?岂有此理,游行去。燃油税要涨7毛钱?天理难容,抗议去。政府要砍掉一半的大学生助学金?欺人太甚,扔臭鸡蛋去。
罗素说,所谓民主,就是选一个人上去挨骂。
所以在一个真正的民主社会当政治家,简直就是活雷锋。“忘恩负义”的批判性民众,看到的永远是你做错了什么,而不是你做对了什么。奥巴马为刺激经济,辛辛苦苦减了1000多亿美元的税,结果调查显示,只有不到十分之一的美国人意识到他们被减了税。相比之下,他要给5%的高收入者加税,火星人都赶来抗议。好莱坞明星朝三暮四那叫风流倜傥,放在政治家身上那叫不要脸。经济学家没有预测出经济危机那叫谨言慎行,放在政治家身上那叫蠢货。CEO们用股东的钱吃香喝辣那叫商业拓展,政治家哪怕旅行借住富豪朋友的别墅都可以是惊人丑闻。
但同时,正是“批判性公民”的警觉,在推动政府完善公共服务。正是民众对政府的不信任,在把这个政府改造得越来越值得信任。这也是为什么在民主国家,民众对政治机构的不信任日渐加深,但这些国家民主制度的质量都稳居前列。换句话说,民众对政府一定的不信任恰恰成了政治健康的表现。
不幸的当然是奥巴马们。他们每天被群众雪亮的目光翻来覆去地烧烤,做错一件事就随时可能把做对的九十九件事给一笔勾销。但“试图享受自由的人,必须承受肩负自由的疲惫”。
当然,如果权力的本意是“当官”,是吃住可以报销,出门前呼后拥,那么批判性公民确实招人讨厌。我不知道与“批判性公民”相对的叫什么,也许可以叫做“给力型公民”。他们永远心怀感恩面带微笑,有人喊“狼来了”,他们心怀感恩面带微笑;面对一地的羊骨头,他们还是心怀感恩面带微笑。也是他们说,现代社会的一切问题其实都只是“心态问题”。■
 作者为清华大学政治学系副教授